Hans Tung
Investor across Qiming, GGV and Notable; Xiaomi, Wish, Poshmark and global consumer markets.
Verified chronology
| Date or period | Verified scaffold and evidence boundary |
|---|---|
| 1970; childhood and migration | Forbes's 2013 interview identifies Taipei as Tung's birthplace and 1970 as his birth year; it places his move to the United States at age 13. The Carnegie institution independently identifies Taiwan as his birthplace. Business Today places migration in 1983 at 13; TechCrunch reports 1984 at 14. The discrepancy remains unresolved. Business Today, opening biography; TechCrunch, opening Forbes, closing biographical paragraphs; Carnegie, “Born in Taiwan” |
| 1989–1993 | Forbes dates his Stanford attendance to 1989–1993, and Stanford's own 2010 conference roster identifies him as BS '93. Degree naming varies across biographies; Tung explains in his 2020 interview that industrial engineering is now called management science engineering. This is his own account of the label change, not evidence of a second qualification. Garry Tan interview, “How Hans got into VC” Forbes, biography; Stanford, “Fueling China 2.0” roster; Notable, education paragraph |
| 1993–1999 | After Stanford, Tung worked at Merrill Lynch in New York and Hong Kong, then joined Crimson Asia Capital in 1996. These dates come from a reported biography, not employment records. Forbes, closing biography |
| 1999–2004 | Forbes places his involvement in Hello Asia and Asia2B from 1999 and attendance at MIT Sloan during 2002–2004. It does not establish an MIT degree or the economics of either startup. Forbes, closing biography |
| 2005–2013 | CHM's speaker profile records eight years living in China, 2005–2013; Carnegie confirms employment at Bessemer and Qiming before GGV. These records support the geographic and institutional sequence without proving why he made either move. CHM, second biographical paragraph; Carnegie, biography |
| September 6, 2006 | Sina’s contemporaneous conference transcript identifies Tung as Bessemer’s China representative. He says its Shanghai office opened the previous November. This is direct dated testimony for the early institutional chronology, with live-transcription errors retained as an access limitation. Sina speech, opening and numbered points |
| Late 2007 / 2008 | Qiming's contemporary May 2011 fund announcement says he joined as a partner in 2008; the Forbes 2013 biography says late 2007. Exact employment commencement remains disputed. The firm announcement is retained as the contemporary anchor; the discrepancy must survive later synthesis. Qiming, paragraph beginning “Qiming also announced”; Forbes, closing biography |
| 2010–2011 | Tung identifies spring 2010 as his initial Xiaomi investment. This is investor-stated / moderate retrospective timing; the earlier 2014 Stanford presentation contains an explicit Xiaomi 2010–2011 case, while contemporary financing/ownership reconstruction remains necessary. Tung and Zhang, opening paragraph; Stanford slides, PDF pp. 15–17 |
| May 2011 | Qiming announced Fund III at $450 million and Tung's promotion to managing director. The announcement names Duane Kuang, JP Gan, Gary Rieschel, Tung, and Nisa Lin as senior investment professionals and identifies institutional LPs. These are firm/vehicle facts, not personal investment returns. Qiming, opening and promotion/team/LP paragraphs, posted May 23 with May 19 dateline |
| 2012; August 2017 | PEdaily recorded strong confidence in Vancl before its later problems. In 2017, Tung discussed inventory risk after Vancl’s difficulties. This is a dated contradiction to investigate, not proof of a specific financial loss. PEdaily, July 30 profile; Yicai, “陈年适合做平台” and final inventory discussion |
| 2013 | Forbes's May profile records Tung's first Midas-list appearance and identifies board roles at Vancl, eHi, 51Fanli, Kaixin001, Domob and YPX Food. The mix supplies a broader Qiming-era investigation set than Xiaomi alone. Forbes, opening board paragraph and caption |
| October 2013 | Tung joined GGV in October 2013. ContextLogic 2023 proxy, director biography “Hans Tung” |
| December 2013–January 2014 | GGV's later public LP presentation dates its Wish entry to December 2013; ContextLogic dates Tung's board service to January 2014. The records concern related but different milestones. GGV September 2020 presentation, printed p. 15; ContextLogic 2023 proxy, “Hans Tung” |
| November 20, 2014 | His Stanford presentation links mobile commerce and cross-border markets, with Xiaomi and Wish cases. It is dated evidence of what he publicly presented in 2014, not a contemporary record of his original Xiaomi decision. Mobile Convergence, title slide and PDF pp. 15–22 |
| 2015–2017 | Tung published a sequence of columns on consumer markets, cross-border startups, and commerce; his December 2017 Poshmark essay dates the first meeting to 2015, investment to early 2016, and identifies his board role. The account distinguishes Poshmark's prospective expansion from what had already happened by publication. Poshmark essay, opening and “When we met” paragraphs; TechCrunch author archive |
| December 2017–2018 | His coauthored Musical.ly/ByteDance essay records an early public interpretation of the combination; Carnegie's July 2018 profile identifies his work cohosting the 996 podcast and his personal blog. The award institution included him among its 2018 Great Immigrants. Tung and Zhang, merger essay; Carnegie, 2018 award and biography |
| December 2018; November 2024 | Bowery’s financing announcement identifies Tung among its directors. A later report records its shutdown. Bowery, financing/director paragraph; TechCrunch, opening |
| 2019 | Tung published an explanation of the inaugural GGV Fellows program, establishing a direct source for his public work developing founder/investor networks. Its investment effectiveness remains unestablished. “Why We Organized GGV Fellows,” January 10 |
| September 2020 | Rhode Island's public investment materials preserve GGV's fundraising presentation, strategy, team, scouting relationships and proposed fund economics. This creates an LP-side check on public founder-facing narratives. GGV presentation, printed pp. 8, 15 and 19 |
| December 2021–January 2022 | Stanford hosted Tung on Asian mobility and then with Gro Intelligence founder Sara Menker on data-driven businesses. These records establish teaching/public-discussion activity and give identifiable venues for testing his cross-market and data claims. Stanford, December 2 event; STVP, January 19 talk |
| December 2022 | Tung and Robin Li published explicit embedded-fintech expectations and operating metrics. The currently hosted page uses the later Notable brand, so it is a migrated dated article rather than an immutable snapshot of the 2022 text. “Big Ideas: Embedded Fintech,” date, prediction and metrics paragraphs |
| March 29, 2024 | Tung's public LinkedIn post marks the formation of Notable Capital and his separation from former colleagues. The exact structure and continuing ownership of legacy GGV funds require separate legal and LP records. Tung, post beginning “To Day 1 again,” public post |
| April 19, 2024 | ContextLogic completed the Wish operating-asset sale, announcing approximately $161 million of adjusted cash consideration and Tung's departure from its board. This is a company-level outcome; it does not establish what GGV or Tung realized on their shares. ContextLogic, transaction completion and board-change paragraphs |
| July–December 2024 | His coauthored Slope essay and Parafin investment announcement provide dated evidence of continuing fintech investing under Notable. The latter names Notable as Series C lead. Slope, July 17 opening and byline; Parafin, December 17 opening |
| 2025–2026 | His dub essay explicitly announces joining the board; Notable's 2025 review records BNTO and Wispr board appointments. His March 2026 Quince essay distinguishes a 2021 personal investment from later firm participation and leadership of a round. These records make personal capital, firm capital and governance separate questions. dub, May 1 opening; Notable 2025 review, October–November; Quince, “What Quince got right” |
Identity, geography and institutional boundaries
As of 2026-10-01, Notable identifies Tung as a managing partner based in Silicon Valley, responsible for its AI-oriented prosumer, commerce and fintech practice. His Chinese name is 童士豪, as used in Chinese-language interviews. Geographic tags for the research are Taiwan; United States; China; global consumer and fintech markets. These are descriptive research boundaries, not a completed claim about an investment advantage. Notable, biography; Yicai, interview headline and text
The institutional chain is Merrill Lynch → Crimson Asia / operating startups → Bessemer Venture Partners → Qiming → GGV → Notable. Personal investments, Qiming holdings and GGV's historical cross-border portfolio must not be flattened into Notable's present-day portfolio. The first two transitions are supported primarily by a reported biography; the Qiming promotion and GGV dates also have firm/filing records. Forbes, biography; Qiming, promotion paragraph; ContextLogic, director biography
People and institutions to trace
| Relationship | Established link and question for attribution |
|---|---|
| Gary Rieschel, Duane Kuang, JP Gan, Nisa Lin; Qiming LPs | The 2011 announcement names the team and LPs. Identify who sponsored, approved and followed on in each Qiming deal; seniority alone proves none of these roles. Qiming, team and LP paragraphs |
| Lei Jun and Xiaomi's other investors | The Xiaomi retrospective and Stanford deck establish a research route. Founder execution, co-investor selection, board work, recruitment and personal carry must be separated. Mobile Convergence, Xiaomi case |
| Peter Szulczewski, Joe Lonsdale and GGV's Wish team | Lonsdale's retrospective credits his own early investment and Tung's subsequent work; the LP presentation supplies a second institutional account. Actual approval and exit rights remain to be reconstructed. 8VC, investment narrative; GGV LP presentation, Wish case |
| Manish Chandra, Robin Li and Poshmark | Tung's essay names his board role and first meeting; Poshmark’s S-1 identifies March 2016 board service, Series C1 nomination rights and shared voting authority over GGV shares. Robin Li's coauthorship elsewhere is separately documented. Poshmark S-1, printed pp. 114–115 and 136–137; Embedded Fintech, byline |
| Jenny Lee, Jixun Foo, Glenn Solomon, Jeff Richards; GGV/Granite/Notable | Shared partnership, authorship and portfolio exposure are distinct from personal deal credit. Jenny Lee's oral account of the failed BlogChina/Bokee investment is a priority independent witness. 996 interview and existing source note; GGV LP presentation, team |
| Zara Zhang, Celia Chen, Robin Li, Rares Crisan, Chelcie Taylor and Cami Katz | Their identified bylines prevent sole-author attribution to Tung. Founder interviews also require separating hosts' questions from guests' assertions. WeChat coauthorship; Notable author archive |
| Josh Elman, Irving Fain and the GGV scout network | The public LP presentation describes sourcing relationships; their contribution is a concrete alternative to a lone-investor explanation. GGV presentation, printed p. 8 |
| Lan at Basis Set, Sid Gupta, and Quince | Tung credits an introduction and a personal check before later Notable investments. Verify each vehicle and decision date independently. Quince, “What Quince got right” |
Biographical questions and material evidence limits
- Early operating experience: What responsibilities did Tung hold at HelloAsia and Asia2B, what ended those businesses, and what lesson did he state before his later investing successes? The Forbes chronology is not an operating postmortem. MIT attendance is not evidence of an earned degree. Forbes, biography
- Exact identity dates: Resolve the late-2007/2008 Qiming discrepancy and migration-age conflict through direct testimony and contemporary institutional records. The 2020 direct interview explains the differing engineering labels; it does not resolve disputed employment or migration dates. Tung, “How Hans got into VC” Qiming, promotion paragraph; Forbes, biography
- Losses and changing beliefs: Test Vancl, Bokee, Wish and other weak outcomes alongside celebrated investments. Tung's 2017 Vancl comments and the Wish close provide starting points; neither alone establishes his investment cash flows or a changed process. Yicai, “陈年适合做平台”; ContextLogic, transaction close
- Economic record: Which funds owned the winners, at what prices, with what dilution and distributions? Portfolio company valuations and Midas rankings are not a personal return series. Rhode Island's materials offer a route to fund-level evidence but require period, vehicle and gross/net reconciliation. GGV public LP presentation, terms and performance disclosures
- Institutional change: What changed in mandates, decision rights, reserves and legacy portfolio governance after the 2024 separation? Tung's announcement establishes his perspective, not the legal answer. Tung's March 29 post, public post
The source map distinguishes fully retrieved documents, excerpt-only material, inaccessible endpoints, duplicate editions and portfolio discovery tools. This chronology establishes a scaffold only; no conclusion about repeatable alpha, causal edge or the final ranking of investments follows from it.
Writings, essays and presentations
Each numbered entry identifies one underlying work. ★★★ = essential; ★★ = useful; ★ = discovery/context only. A identifies first-person, official or filing evidence; B named reporting; C an unverified discovery aid. An A source may still be promotional, retrospective or mistaken. Full means its public text was retrieved, not that its claims have been independently established; partial specifies the text/media boundary. Checks remain open until the relevant work has been analyzed. Access observations are as of 2026-10-01; unnumbered mirrors and alternate delivery routes do not increase the source count.
★★★ | W01 Mobile Convergence | 2014-11-20 | slides; A; full 22-page PDF; locator PDF pp. 1, 15–22 | Early public thesis and Xiaomi/Wish case framing; presentation date is on cover, not the hosting timestamp. Related seminar record confirms title; archived video failed DNS retrieval.
★★ | W02 Internet of Things means never having to search again | 2015-03-18 | coauthored essay; A; full indexed text; locator named sections | Jenny Lee coauthor; device thesis.
★★★ | W03 Xiaomi On Its 5th Birthday | 2015-05-06 | essay; A; full text; locator article paragraphs | Earlier Xiaomi retrospective.
★★★ | W04 Startups Serving The 99 Percent Will Be the Next Billion-Dollar Companies | 2015-06-30 | essay; A; full text; locator article body | Mass-market thesis.
★★★ | W05 Want To Be The Next Amazon? Go Cross-Border From Day One | 2015-07-18 | essay; A; full text; locator article body | Early global-commerce argument.
★★★ | W06 Now Is The Time To Break Into China | 2015-10-07 | essay; A; full text; locator article body | Preserve geopolitical comparison; 2017 Medium reprint is duplicate.
★★ | W07 Converging consumer values in China and the U.S. are creating millennials without borders | 2017-07-09 | essay; A; full text; locator body | Demographic thesis; Medium duplicate.
★★★ | W08 Beyond Amazon and Alibaba: what's next for e-commerce? | 2017-08-20 | essay; A; full text; locator body | Platform-incumbency comparison.
★★ | W09 Consumer internet startups go mainstream outside of Silicon Valley | 2017-09-03 | essay; A; full text; locator named subsections | Geographic selection; Medium edition credits Robin Li.
★★ | W10 Why More Trains May Lead to More Unicorns in China | 2017-10-23 | coauthored essay; A metadata; partial: author-index title/date only, canonical fetch failed; no content locator | Physical infrastructure thesis; recover body before interpretation.
★★★ | W11 Why We Invested in Poshmark | 2017-12-01 | essay; A; full text; locator four-segment list and “When we met” paragraph | Investment/board chronology and social-commerce comparison; migrated firm edition.
★★★ | W12 Bytedance-Musical.ly Merger Ushers in New Age for Content Companies | 2017-12-16 | essay with Zara Zhang; A; full text via clean canonical URL; locator article paragraphs | Early merger interpretation; distinguish from later TikTok outcome narratives.
★★ | W13 “Father of WeChat” Lays Out 2018 Product Roadmap | 2018-01-22 | coauthored commentary/translated selections; A authorial framing; full text; locator opening/TLDR/quoted speech | Separate Tung/Zhang interpretation from Allen Zhang's words; original Chinese speech linked.
★★★ | W14 Why Meituan-Dianping's expansion makes sense | 2018-05 magazine; web republication 2018-05-14 | coauthored edited republication; A; full PDF; locator printed/PDF p. 25 | Authorized surviving essay by Tung/Zara Zhang; dead original hans.vc/why-meituan-dianpings-expansion-makes-sense/ attempted; edited version is not proof of identical original text.
★★ | W15 A Deck: Meituan-Dianping's Expasion | 2018-04-24 | presentation landing; A; partial: public explanatory text, slide asset not extracted; locator opening | Related to W14, potentially overlapping underlying argument; do not count repetition as independent corroboration.
★★ | W16 My Presentation at Code Conference 2018 | 2018-05-31 | presentation landing; A metadata; partial: author-index record, canonical inaccessible; no content locator | Recover slides/video, cross-check duplication with W14–W15.
★★★ | W17 How Pinduoduo Works | 2018-07-20 | essay with Zara Zhang; A; full public text; locator article sections | Dated competitor analysis; writing about a business does not establish investment.
★★★ | W18 Xiaomi's eighth-anniversary and IPO reflection | 2018-08-22 | coauthored essay; A; full text; locator numbered questions | Retrospective.
★★★ | W19 Why We Invested in Yellow | 2018-09-14 | Tung/Robin Li/Zara Zhang essay; A; full public text; locator article paragraphs | Mobility and Brazil expansion; compare eventual company outcome, personal versus firm roles and coauthors.
★★ | W20 Why We Organized GGV Fellows | 2019-01-10 | essay; A; full public text; locator article paragraphs | Founder network and educational-program rationale.
★★★ | W21 Big Ideas: Embedded Fintech | 2022-12-14 | Tung/Robin Li essay; A; full text; locator OS/metrics/prediction paragraphs | Explicit benchmarks and forecast; migrated Notable branding predates firm name and is not a frozen 2022 copy.
★★★ | W22 Investing in Fintech Innovation: Why Notable Capital Invested in Slope | 2024-07-17 | Tung/Rares Crisan essay; A; full text; locator four named subsections | AI, transaction infrastructure and round rationale; preserve coauthorship.
★★★ | W23 Why We Invested In Parafin | 2024-12-17 | essay plus interview embed; A; full written text, media untranscribed; locator “The Solution” and team sections | Embedded-finance underwriting; essay and accompanying conversation require separate speaker attribution.
★★ | W24 Why We Invested In GORGIE | 2025-04-29 | essay; A; full public text; locator opening founder-history paragraphs | Repeat backing after LIVELY; quoted transaction price is not fund proceeds.
★★★ | W25 Why We Invested In Dub | 2025-05-01 | essay plus interview embed; A; full written text; locator “The Team Behind Dub,” opening board statement | Cold LinkedIn outreach, copy-trading thesis and governance; separate forecasts from results.
★★ | W26 Why We Invested in BNTO | 2025-10-14 | Tung/Cami Katz essay; A; full text; locator supply-chain/Wish-comparison paragraphs | Contemporary quality-control and affordability comparison can test earlier Wish rhetoric.
★★★ | W27 Why We Invested in Wispr Flow: Making Voice the Future of How We Work | 2025-11-20 | Chelcie Taylor/Tung essay; A; full written text, embedded videos untranscribed; locator voice/user-experience paragraphs | Coauthored AI interface rationale; do not assign every first-person sentence to Tung.
★★★ | W28 How Quince Built a Better Retail Model to Democratize Quality | 2026-03-11 | essay; A; full text; locator “A trend 20 years in the making” and “What Quince got right” | Retrospective thesis origin; explicit personal-check/firm-round distinction and introduction credit.
★★ | W29 Opposing Strategies in the Mobile Messaging Wars: Atomization vs Centralization | 2016, exact day unverified | Tung/Glenn Solomon essay; A metadata; partial: coauthor reference only, canonical cache miss; no verified content locator | W13 identifies year/authors; recover before comparing messaging strategies.
★★ | W30 Why Slack & WeChat Have Gone to Work | date unverified | Tung/Glenn Solomon essay; A metadata; partial: W13 reference, direct fetch error; no content locator | Slack attribution and product thesis retrieval lead.
★★ | W31 A Typical Day on WeChat | date unverified, linked by 2018-01-22 | Tung/Celia Chen essay; A metadata; partial: W13 reference, cache miss; no content locator | Consumer-behavior observation; coauthor and direct access still matter.
★★ | W32 How Amazon and Whole Foods Can Learn from China—Field Notes from China's Retail Revolution | before 2018-01-08; exact day unverified | essay; A metadata; partial: CSIS citation, original unavailable; locator CSIS notes 49–50 | Dead-blog corpus item must remain visible; do not analyze from title alone.
★★ | W33 GGV Digital Economy presentation | 2021-09 cover date; performance dated 2021-09-05 | Tung/Robin Li/Marcello Rossi presentation; A; full 13-page PDF; locator PDF pp. 1–5, 12–13 | Index construction, post-pandemic performance and attribution; public-equity index returns are not fund returns.
★★ | W34 社交招聘靠谱么 — 收费,死路一条 | 2010-10-11, 16:23 | signed subsection in multi-author feature; A; full subsection through ordinary public HTTPS after web-renderer failure; locator “收费,死路一条” and “文/童士豪” | Community culture and monetization; only the signed subsection belongs to Tung.
Talks, interviews, video and oral testimony
★★★ | T01 20VC: Consumer mobile, lessons from China and opportunity cost | official page 2018-01-07 | podcast; A audio; partial: official show notes; locator questions 1–5 | Early geography, pricing and capital-allocation questions; transcript not acquired.
★★★ | T02 20VC: Investing lessons from Peloton and Square | official page 2021-09-19; feed 2021-09-20 | podcast; A audio; partial: official show notes and public transcript excerpt; locator questions 1–4 | Tiger competition, market size, prices and selling; mirror withholds later transcript.
★★★ | T03 AMA: Hans Tung on Breaking into VC and Other Questions from Listeners | 2019-06-04 | 996/Evolving for the Next Billion ep. 38, 55 min; A audio; partial: dated Apple notes; locator question outline | Career and failure questions; series rebrand does not create a new interview.
★★★ | T04 Hans Tung: Finding Opportunity in Failure | 2022-07-27 | TiNDLE podcast, 39:38; A; full official transcript; locator interviewer questions, no paragraph IDs | Operating disappointments, Affirm references, Musical.ly exit, GGV team attribution; date/duration checked against publisher feed.
★★★ | T05 Hans Tung — Mastering Global Venture Capital | 2023-06-23 | Wharton FinTech, 51 min; A audio; partial: feed description and machine-transcript excerpt; locator 01:40 biography | Check proper nouns against audio; excerpt is not a full transcript. Evolving’s June22 “Finding your T” release is the same underlying interview.
★★★ | T06 Notable Capital's Hans Tung on VC and down rounds | 2024-04-20 audio; 2024-04-30 video listing | Equity podcast; A audio; partial: official description; locator linked Simplecast archive | Financing-cycle and separation discussion.
★★★ | T07 The Sociologist Venture Capitalist: Hans Tung on Unlocking Global Innovation | webpage 2025-01-30; audio 2025-01-29 | AdvancingVC ep. 2, 44:07; A audio; partial: official notes; locator episode page | Regional investment mandates and geopolitics; video route, no transcript acquired.
★★★ | T08 Hans Tung — The Midas Touch | 2025-10-07 | Hyphen Nation with Dave Lu, 58 min; A audio; partial: indexed Apple description; locator season 1 ep. 10 | Immigrant experience and Asian American leadership; video upload day differs from audio release.
★★★ | T09 E371: Midas List VC: Why AI Models Will NOT Become Commodities | 2026-05-18 | How I Invest, 29 min; A audio; partial: official chapters, transcript panel remained loading | Locators 00:00 Anthropic, 11:03 immigration, 14:08 VC skill, 18:25 apps, 23:02 networks, 26:48 prosumers.
★★ | T10 The Sociology of Startup Success with VC Powerhouse Hans Tung | 2025-10-01 | Term Sheet video, 23:04; A audio; partial: official page; no transcript locator | Description misstates cofounder status.
★★ | T11 A Keyboard-Less Future: Wispr Flow | 2026-02-19 | Notable Perspectives, 33:12; A audio; partial: official notes/chapters | Tung and Chelcie Taylor interview founders; 07:47 pivot, 11:13 task frequency, 18:01 quality threshold, 27:23 agents.
★★★ | T12 Techtonic Shift: China's Rise in Venture Capital and Tech | event 2018-06-20; recap 2018-08-01 | CHM panel with Carmen Chang; A recording/B recap; partial: full recap, video retrieval failed | Locator “Watch the Full Conversation”; full-video URL recovered from embed, captions unacquired; recap biography is unreliable.
★★ | T13 Turning Data into Action | official event 2022-01-19 | Stanford ETL, 56:58; A recording; partial: event and clip descriptions | Sara Menker is main subject; Tung/Emily Ma participate. Do not label founder statements as Tung's.
★★ | T14 GGV's Hans Tung and Jeff Richards — Extra Crunch Live | 2020-06-30 | interview; A recording; partial: official announcement; video route | Pandemic discussion; recording/captions unacquired.
★★★ | T15 GGV童士豪:投资全球化下的屌丝经济和白富美经济 | event 2015-06-08; publication 2015-06-10 | edited Chinese Q&A; A answers/B editing; full text; locator consumer-segmentation heading | Early Xiaohongshu and cross-border shopping; abridgment explicitly declared.
★★★ | T16 甲小姐对话GGV全球合伙人童士豪:世界是一元论的 | 2018-05-25 | Jiazi Guangnian interview; A answers/B framing; full publisher-channel text; locator question headings | Globalization optimism, urbanization and acquisitions before firm separation.
★★★ | T17 小米种子轮投资人童士豪:现在不用急着投区块链项目 | 2018-07-27 | interview by 李媚玲; A answers/B introduction; full text; locator questions | Selection among Xiaohongshu alternatives, team/market tradeoff and timing; board dates in introduction need cross-check.
★★★ | T18 《格局》童士豪:创业者的成功才是投资人的成功 | 2019-08-13 | Phoenix transcript, 吕思墨; A answers/B narration; full text; locator named sections/questions | Xiaomi, biography and motivation; narrated return multiple remains reported and unverified.
★★ | T19 童士豪:什么样的项目才能拿到B轮融资? | 2015-09-17 | JMedia Q&A; A answers/B editing; full public text; locator “O2O为何成为融资难的重灾区” and fit question | Product/market/founder match, O2O risks and Xiaohongshu selection.
★★ | T20 面谈79期:在中国不砸钱的Airbnb,成绩却更好 | 2017-05-04 | Jiemian video; A recording; partial: official page opened, no transcript exposed; locator ep. 79 | Airbnb China entry; caption route remains necessary.
★★ | T21 专访纪源资本童士豪:“点金”消费级移动互联网时代 | 2017-05-06 | 21世纪经济报道 interview by 王尔德; A answers/B narrative; full public text; locator named questions | Mobile globalization; test overlap with T20 before treating as independent testimony.
★★ | T22 Chinese investors’ 2018 outlook | 2017-12-08, 09:53 ET | Polina Marinova Q&A; A answers/B framing; full original; locator question headings | Chinese translation, December24, same work.
★★ | T23 Unicorn Factory: Interview with GGV Capital's Hans Tung | 2018 context; exact date unverified | CKGSB Knowledge Q&A; A answers/B framing; full public Q&A; locator questions on US-China tensions and 2019 priorities | Founder differences, chips, mobile and ZTE; exact publication date still unverified.
★★★ | T24 GGV童士豪:阿里与亚马逊主战场在印度,开战越晚对阿里越有利 | 2017-08-30 | Yicai interview; A answers/B narration; full text; locator “陈年适合做平台” and “社交,自营,新零售” | Vancl inventory, transfer limits and personal India investments.
★★★ | T25 Q2 2017 Quarterly VC Update: Hans Tung on the State of Venture Capital Investing | Q2 2017; promoted 2017-08-02 | official Q&A; A; full text; locator question headings | Terms, valuation, SAFEs and selection bias; financing report is the same interview/context, not another independent voice.
★★★ | T26 Hans Tung and the 16 unicorns | 2020-07-09 | Garry Tan interview transcript/video guide; A direct voice; full public transcript; video | Locators 00:50 career, 05:00 Alibaba, 21:59 founder-market fit, 23:36 distribution; narrator and subject must remain distinct. Evolving’s July15 bonus is the same underlying recording.
★★ | T27 What Asia Mobility means for U.S. Business | 2021-12-02 | Stanford fireside chat with Richard Dasher; A recording/slides; partial: full event page; extracted video and slides both failed direct web opening | Locator “Seminar Video” and slide link; financing/regulatory context and super-app comparisons.
★★★ | T28 Jenny Lee of GGV Capital on Being a VC in China | 2018-06-08 | 996 interview; A witness audio; partial in this scout: existing repo audio-derived note, publisher direct retrieval returned HTTP406 | Existing note, 12:10–13:49 Bokee co-investment/board/wind-down; witness evidence, not Tung solo testimony.
★★★ | T29 童士豪:VC更多将所投资企业推向市场而非股市 | 2006-09-06, 17:07 | Sina live speech transcript; A; full public text via ordinary HTTPS after web-renderer failure; locator artibody, numbered points and final three paragraphs | Bessemer China office chronology, operating judgment, exit markets and US fund expectations; transcription errors require care.
★★ | T30 Our India investment strategy is similar to Southeast Asia | 2020; exact day unverified | KrASIA Q&A; A answers/B framing; full public text; locator question headings | Edited for length and clarity; compare personal and institutional India investments.
★★★ | T31 Live in Jakarta: Founders Q&A with Hans Tung | 2020-08-05 | Evolving podcast; A underlying audio/C catalog; partial: title/date verified in full inventory, episode URL unresolved | Locate by exact title; official transcript homepage failed, audio/transcript unacquired.
★★★ | T32 Hans Tung of GGV: The Unbelievable 2020 | 2020-12-30 | Evolving podcast; A underlying audio/C catalog; partial: indexed description and inventory date | Year-end retrospective; official transcript homepage failed, audio/transcript unacquired.
★★★ | T33 Episode 100: Hans on Web3, investing pace, ESG and proudest moments | feed 2022-03-03; SoundCloud upload 2022-01-19 | Evolving podcast, 34:23; A official-channel metadata; partial: public HTML verified title/date/duration, player unacquired | Reconcile release dates; peak-market pacing and Web3 baseline, no transcript acquired.
★★ | T34 Live from BayBrazil: Hans on What Excites Him about LatAm | 2021-12-15 | Evolving event audio; A official-channel metadata; partial: direct HTML title/date, web-renderer error | Distinct from 2022 BayBrazil appearance; recording/transcript unacquired.
★★ | T35 AMA: Hans and Zara on the Origin of this Podcast | 2019-09-03 | Evolving Q&A; A underlying audio/C catalog; partial: title/date and distributed notes, direct page failed | Podcast origins, CEO selection and VC entry; advertised transcript requires app and was not acquired.
★★ | T36 Jenny, Jixun and Hans on Southeast Asia | 2019-11-20 | Evolving conversation, 35:24; A underlying audio/C catalog; partial: indexed metadata, direct page failed | Hans/Dimitra cohost Jenny/Jixun; separate speakers, no transcript acquired.
★★ | T37 Live in Bangalore: VG, Manu and Hans | 2019-10-09 | Evolving panel; A underlying audio/C catalog; partial: exact full title/date verified in inventory, episode URL unresolved | Udaan/Xiaomi/GGV panel; founder statements are not Tung’s, recording/transcript unacquired.
★★ | T38 Tung on 2023 down rounds | 2022-12-29 | interview; A answers/B framing; full public text; locator questions | Financing-cycle baseline.
Biography, press and books
★★★ | P01 New Midas Lister Hans Tung On The Next Big Idea In China After Xiaomi | 2013-05-08; updated 2013-05-13 | Laura He profile/interview; B; full publisher text; locator closing biography and board paragraph | Early career, Qiming portfolio and LP pressure; conflicts with 2011 firm employment year.
★★★ | P02 “The Humanist”: Hans Tung and GGV's new funds | 2016-04-12 | Alex Konrad profile; B; partial: substantive search excerpt, direct fetch inaccessible; locator biography/fund excerpt | Family/history/Stanford influences and vehicle expansion; do not imply full article read.
★★★ | P03 童士豪:創業大航海時代來了! | 2017-01-24; February issue | 林士蕙 profile; B; full text; locator “寬頻興起 慧眼看好雷軍” | Formative biography and mother witness; distinguish recollections from causal evidence.
★★ | P04 一個台灣囝仔 如何變全球最強創投? | 2017-01-05 | 今周刊 profile; B; full public text; locator “第一次創業失敗收場” and founder-selection section | History/sport and HelloAsia failure; migration dated 1983/age13 differs from later coverage.
★★★ | P05 童士豪:小米身后的投资人 凡客诚品成功率99% | 2012-07-30 | PEdaily profile/interview; B/A attributed answers; full public text through 21ic republication, dated 2012-08-01; original web fetch failed | Contemporary Vancl confidence; the mirror is the same underlying story, not independent corroboration.
★★★ | P06 启明创投童士豪:投资与凡客访谈 | 2012-05-21 | PEdaily interview; A answers/B narration; partial: page 1 retrieved via direct HTTP after web cache miss; locator page 1, 13-investments passage | Contemporary Qiming denominator and explicit colleagues' deal credit; pages 2–3 remain to acquire; descriptive label not quoted headline.
★★ | P07 启明创投童士豪:敢冒险的投资人 | 2011-12-04 | profile/interview; B; partial: indexed text, direct fetch failed | Vancl/eHi fieldwork before outcomes; original outlet route unresolved.
★★ | P08 Sina biographical feature: 童士豪 | publication date unverified | feature; B; full landing text; locator “创业失败未迷茫” | Asia2B setback and Vancl board departure; do not invent a publication day.
★★ | P09 After Alibaba and Xiaomi, Hans Tung seeks China's next big thing | 2018-07-24 | Yingzhi Yang interview; B/A attributed answers; partial: indexed substantive text | Holding-period discussion and personal Xiaomi stake; GGV's Alibaba entry preceded Tung's arrival.
★ | P10 The Power Law — China chapter discovery review | 2022-03-02 | book review; C discovery only; indexed text; locator discussion of chapter 10 | Leads to Sebastian Mallaby's book; no full book or Tung passage verified, so no book-derived claim is used.
★★ | P11 Hans Tung — 2018 Great Immigrants | updated 2018-07 | award institution biography; A institutional record; full text; locator award heading/biography | Taiwan, Bessemer/Qiming and personal-blog provenance; portfolio values are dated promotional claims.
★★ | P12 Hans Tung — CHM speaker profile | undated, content describes 2018 | institutional profile; A promotional; full text; locator three biography paragraphs | China residence 2005–2013 and old blog; do not use stale valuations as current facts.
★ | P13 GGV hires Hans Tung | 2013-10-21 | Kim-Mai Cutler report; B; full indexed text; locator opening | Contemporary transition corroboration.
★★ | P14 Tung and the Stop Asian Hate campaign | 2021-03-31 | Connie Loizos reporting; B; indexed text; locator opening | Conflicting immigration year/age.
★★ | P15 童士豪 Hans Tung | 2011-09-14 | Yicai bilingual biography; B/promotional; full public text; locator English/Chinese career paragraphs | Named investments include Youxigu, 7K7K, Wali and Yaodian100; independently records late2007 Qiming start, preserving the 2011 firm-announcement discrepancy.
★★★ | P16 科技VC的新锐力量:早期投资一半天使一半魔鬼 | 2011-11-04, 14:45 | contemporary profile; B; full public text via ordinary HTTPS after web-renderer failure; locator “启明的打法” and Tung/Hu Bin passages | Division of labor, ordinary portfolio names and pre-outcome diligence; reported investment counts remain unverified.
Firm records, filings, deal data and historical context
★★★ | D01 Qiming Fund III closing and Tung promotion | announcement dateline 2011-05-19; posted 2011-05-23 | firm release; A; full text; locator opening/promotion/team/LP paragraphs | Contemporary 2008 joining date, vehicle and team evidence; firm portfolio is not all attributable to Tung.
★★ | D02 China 2.0 conference roster | 2010-10 | Stanford event record; A; full indexed agenda; locator “Fueling China 2.0” | Independent Stanford BS '93 / Qiming affiliation anchor.
★★★ | D03 GGV presentation to Rhode Island | 2020-09 | manager-authored public LP document; A for reported claims; full 28-page PDF; locator printed pp. 2–3, 8, 15, 19 | Historical firm denominator, named scouts, Wish case, target fees/carry/geography; targets are not executed fund terms or personal returns.
★★★ | D04 Rhode Island staff memo: GGV VIII, Discovery III and VIII Plus | 2020-09 investment meeting | LP staff memo; A; full two-page PDF; locator recommendation/rationale | LP perspective and allocation split; compare manager presentation and later commitments.
★★ | D05 Cliffwater GGV recommendation memo | 2020-09 meeting | consultant memo; A document/B assessment; partial: indexed excerpt, direct web open failed | Independent consultant claims still require gross/net and date checks.
★★★ | D06 ERSRI investment report | cover 2026-02-28; private-equity table as of 2025-09-30 | public LP report; A; full PDF via direct public download after web-open error; locator printed pp. 27–30, GGV rows pp. 28 and 30 | Reconcile commitment/performance labels; returns are dated September2025, not the cover month, and are not personal results.
★★ | D07 Rhode Island private-growth manager directory | undated; accessed 2026-10-01 | official directory; A; public page retrieved; locator GGV VIII rows | Plus/Discovery amounts conflict with later performance report; do not silently choose a number.
★★ | D08 Rhode Island investment fee report | FY ended 2024-06-30 | public LP report; A; full seven-page PDF through web text; locator PDF p. 5 GGV rows, p. 2 methodology | Actual expenses for VIII/Plus/DiscoveryIII versus target terms; disclosure uses best-efforts methodology.
★★★ | D09 ContextLogic 2023 definitive proxy | 2023-03-09 | SEC filing; A; full HTML; locator printed pp. 8–9, Hans Tung and committees | Wish board January 2014; GGV October 2013; degree naming and governance.
★★★ | D10 ContextLogic Wish asset-sale completion | 2024-04-19 | issuer release; A; full text; locator opening and board-change paragraphs | Approximately $161m adjusted cash consideration and Tung departure; not GGV proceeds or proof of total loss.
★★ | D11 ContextLogic director-resignation 8-K | 2024-04-02 | SEC filing; A; full public filing; locator Item 5.02 | Conditional resignations dated April 1 versus actual closing.
★★★ | D12 Reflections on our investment in Wish | 2020-12 | Joe Lonsdale participant account; A retrospective; full text; locator Series B paragraph | Shared credit, Chinese merchant introductions and subsequent syndicate; not independent proof of every value-add claim.
★★★ | D13 Bowery announces $90m financing | 2018-12-12 | company release; A; full text; locator investor/director paragraph | Pre-setback investment and board map with co-directors; separate founder work and investor sponsorship.
★★★ | D14 Bowery Farming is ceasing operations | 2024-11-04 | reporting; B; full indexed text; locator opening | Shutdown lead; no personal loss measure.
★★★ | D15 House Select Committee venture-capital report | 2024-02-08 | congressional investigation; A official findings; full 68-page PDF; locator GGV discussion and company exhibits | Firm-level regulatory context; name search found no Tung, so no personal misconduct attribution follows.
★★★ | D16 Hans Tung on Notable's launch | text specifies 2024-03-29; edited post | first-person statement; A; full public post via this route; locator opening paragraphs | Separation and self-described geography; same post's feed/update URL can fail, not a different source.
★★★ | D17 Notable Capital — Hans Tung | undated; accessed 2026-10-01 | firm biography and author index; A promotional; full text; locator bio and articles | Current mandate and corpus discovery; company valuation milestones are not individual realized returns.
★★★ | D18 Notable companies | undated; accessed 2026-10-01 | firm portfolio directory; A promotional; full public directory; locator company entries | Candidate universe only; /portfolio is a failed guessed path, /companies is the actual linked route.
★★ | D19 2025 Notable year in review | 2025 review, publication day unspecified | firm report; A; full public text; locator monthly timeline/Notable Exits | Named 2025 board appointments, firm events and exits; each company needs individual attribution.
★ | D20 Signal/NFX Hans Tung | undated; accessed 2026-10-01 | aggregator; C; full public page; locator Investments On Record | Summary 172 versus header 112 and corrupt employment fields; company-discovery aid, never a clean denominator.
★ | D21 Crunchbase Hans Tung | undated; accessed 2026-10-01 | aggregator; C; partial: public page opened, dates/amounts obfuscated; locator Personal/Partner Investments | Separates 29 personal and 148 partner investment records; company/follow-on definitions still unverified, no bypass attempted.
★★ | D22 GGV's separate successor brands | 2024-03-31 | reporting; B; partial: indexed text | Misstates cofounder credit; cross-check firm records.
★★ | D23 Disruptors, Innovators, and Thieves | 2018-01-08 | CSIS digital-economy study; B contextual analysis; partial: indexed PDF passages and citation trail; locator printed p. 13 notes 49–50 | Contemporary innovation context and exact dead-blog references; not Tung's words or original essays.
★★ | D24 GGV Capital 2015 Year in Review | 2015 review; upload day unverified | firm slide deck mirror; A underlying document, hosting provenance to confirm; public slide text retrieved; locator slides 15–17 | Earlier portfolio/author archive and partner-credit map; images not copied.
★★★ | D25 Poshmark S-1 | 2020-12-17 | SEC filing; A; full public HTML; locator printed pp. 114–115 and 136–137 | Board since March2016, Series C1 nomination rights, GGV shareholding and shared voting control; beneficial control is not personal economic ownership.
Coverage assessment
Search scope, chronology and name variants
The discovery pass searched Hans Tung, 童士豪, GGV/纪源资本, Bessemer/BVP, Qiming/启明创投, and Notable. English interview, podcast, transcript, essay, philosophy, PDF and oral-history patterns were combined with periods 2005–2012, 2013–2015, 2016–2019, 2020–2023 and 2024–2026; Chinese searches used 采访/访谈/訪談 and the same career eras. The original September 2006 speech was recovered through Sina’s conference index; a separate early remote-education interview remains unresolved. This is a documented discovery scope, not a claim that every appearance or investment exists in this bibliography. The political scientist Hans H./Hanpu Tung and a Canadian wealth manager's documents are false positives and excluded.
The primary written-corpus routes were the Notable author archive, TechCrunch author archive, personal Medium archive, coauthor Zara Zhang's website, Stanford slides and legitimate magazine republication. Medium tracked links initially failed; removing the tracking query recovered Yellow, Pinduoduo, Fellows and the Musical.ly merger. TechCrunch/Medium reproductions of the same essay count once. Migrated firm pages may change branding or wording without changing their old date.
Direct voice, archives and access boundaries
The spoken sweep covered 20VC, 996/Evolving for the Next Billion, Notable Perspectives, Wharton FinTech, TiNDLE, AdvancingVC, How I Invest, Stanford, CHM, TechCrunch/Equity, Fortune, Cooley, Garry Tan, Huxiu, Jiemian, Phoenix, Yicai, Jiazi Guangnian and CKGSB. The Listen Notes name catalog and CEO Interviews catalog are enumeration aids only. Many hits are episodes Tung hosts, not interviews in which he states his own rules. The strongest full-text routes already retrieved include TiNDLE, Garry Tan’s official transcript, Cooley and the identified Chinese Q&As. Official notes and public transcript excerpts remain explicitly partial; a “Loading transcript” panel or embed is not an acquired transcript. Caption/audio retrieval is required when these works are processed.
The catalog supplied seven additional recording links, all directly attempted and all returning YouTube fetch errors/cache misses: Collision 2023, Nasdaq Embedded Fintech 50, Evolving Economy 2022, BayBrazil 2022, Tony Fadell with Tung/Richards, HYSTA anniversary and Reimagined with Robin. They remain C-grade discovery routes; catalog upload dates and content are unverified against original media. No fabricated timestamp or unseen transcript is used. Searches for a dedicated Colossus/Invest Like the Best appearance instead surfaced third-party discussions mentioning him; no dedicated appearance was established. A targeted 25iq query produced no matching Tung article.
The full Evolving episode inventory was opened; catalog totals of 105 and 111 disagree and remain unreconciled. Host episodes are not a clean Tung-testimony denominator. Jakarta and Bangalore have verified inventory titles/dates but unresolved episode slugs. The official transcript homepage failed; Apple’s lookup API returned no record and the advertised Resonate feed route failed. No RSS endpoint, transcript or audio acquisition is invented. Garry Tan’s July2020 rerun and the June2023 Wharton crossover count only once each.
The old personal site hans.vc failed direct access; a second route encountered DNS failure. Wayback nearest-date requests and CDX enumeration failed with tool errors/connection timeout. No archive snapshot was retrieved and no snapshot date is claimed. Individual original Meituan and supermarket essay URLs were also attempted. Surviving public Medium/coauthor/publisher editions are named above; they do not erase missing original editions.
Exact-name searches covered CHM, Stanford SearchWorks/Silicon Valley Archives, WorldCat, Bancroft/Berkeley oral-history routes and Harvard library references. No personal manuscript accession or dedicated oral-history transcript was identified. The actual CHM find is a filmed panel. Direct SearchWorks returned a JavaScript security page; WorldCat returned a challenge/403. Google Books exposed no verified readable Tung book passage; The Power Law chapter lead remains a discovery reference. These results limit access, not proof that no collections or book mentions exist. No archive/person was contacted.
Additional exact-name searches covered Hong Kong Memory, Hong Kong Public Libraries, the Hong Kong Government Records Service, Taiwan National Central Library catalogs and Chinese 口述, 口述歷史 and 檔案 terms; no relevant personal accession was identified. Year-specific 2005–2007 Chinese searches and the fully retrieved Sina 2006 conference index recovered T29. A morning panel without Tung was excluded. Ordinary public HTTPS retrieval succeeded for Sina and SoundCloud pages that the web renderer could not extract.
Two additional Chinese republication trails remain unnumbered pending deduplication: the full Aliyun 2012 profile, with original outlet/day unverified, and the December2011 investor profile, whose direct retrieval failed. The 2019 India interview also failed direct opening; its overlap with T30 is unverified. They are discovery routes, not extra independent corroboration.
Public LP materials were located through Rhode Island's actual meeting archive, including manager, staff and consultant documents. The primary source is used instead of a Readkong mirror. No confidential LP letter, complete private fund ledger, executed partnership agreement, personal carry schedule or investor-stated public annual shareholder letter was established. Public firm year reviews, filings and pension disclosures are the available routes, not substitutes for missing private records.
Portfolio denominator, attribution and skeptical evidence
Start the candidate company universe with Qiming-era board lists and the 2012 thirteen-investment claim; GGV's historical LP presentation and 2015 report; current Notable directory and individual biography; issuer filings; and personal-investment statements such as Quince/India. GGV's 2020 presentation reports 388 historical and 251 active companies for the firm, not for Tung; validate definitions and vintages before any use. NFX's inconsistent 172/112 counts and corrupted roles are unsuitable for a coverage denominator. Crunchbase's public page distinguishes 29 personal and 148 partner investment records but obfuscates dates/amounts; these are not a deduplicated company universe. Individual portfolio coverage fraction: not computable at discovery. GGV presentation, printed pp. 2–3; PEdaily, page 1; Signal, summary/records
The material case candidates are Xiaomi, Wish, Musical.ly/ByteDance, Poshmark, Xiaohongshu/Rednote, Affirm, Quince, Vancl, Bokee/BlogChina and Bowery, with ordinary and failed investments from the historical lists retained. Diligence must also test claimed credit for Airbnb, Slack, Peloton, Coinbase and newer fintech investments, not assume every name in a biography is a personally sourced deal. Qiming colleagues' Dianping/Mogujie attribution, GGV scouts, coauthors, co-directors and co-investors are explicit alternative-credit routes. PEdaily; 8VC Wish narrative; GGV presentation, printed pp. 8 and 15
Skeptical routes are unusually concrete: the 2012 Vancl confidence versus 2017 inventory discussion; 2020 Wish enthusiasm versus the 2024 asset sale; Bowery's 2018 board/round versus later shutdown; Jenny Lee's Bokee recollection; geopolitical optimism versus the 2024 firm separation and congressional report. None establishes Tung's loss amount without ownership and cash flows. The congressional report concerns firms/companies and does not establish personal misconduct by Tung. Vancl interview; Wish close; Bowery financing; congressional report
Historical context and completed-peer comparisons
Contemporary context anchors include the 2011 Qiming financing environment, 2014 mobile slides, 2017 Cooley financing data, 2018 China digital-economy analysis, 2020 GGV fund presentation, 2022 embedded-fintech article and 2024 congressional record. Distinguish period-available observations from retrospective narratives; later outcome data cannot enter a reconstructed early investment memo unnoticed. Qiming; Cooley; CSIS
Two completed peers offer the closest controlled comparisons: Gary Rieschel for Qiming's institutional formation and China vehicle/local-team decisions, and Jenny Lee for GGV's shared vehicle, sector division, fieldwork, governance, Bokee and later separation. Compare sourcing, picking, ownership, construction, governance, incentives and failures while holding the shared institutional setting visible. These are researcher inference / provisional comparison designs, not conclusions of superiority. Underlying shared evidence is Qiming's 2011 team/LP announcement, GGV's 2020 presentation, and Lee's sourced Bokee testimony. Neil Shen and Alfred Lin are not used as completed comparisons because their local canon packages are unfinished.
Highest-value retrieval priorities
- Recover the remaining Medium/hans.vc writings and slide assets; inspect PEdaily pagination and Chinese originals; keep unavailable works in the corpus denominator.
- Acquire official transcripts/captions or audio for both 20VC episodes, the AMA, Wharton, CHM, Equity, AdvancingVC, Hyphen Nation and How I Invest; verify claims against the recording rather than machine-text errors.
- Build dated issuer-filing trails for Xiaomi, Wish, Poshmark, Affirm, Peloton, Ibotta, Slack and Airbnb; distinguish fund ownership/shared voting from personal sponsorship. Add HKEX and SEC accession details only after opening the actual documents.
- Reconcile historical company lists against failed/deleted portfolio entries, Qiming-era investments and personal capital. Reconstruct Vancl/Bokee/Wish/Bowery without converting public setbacks into invented investor losses.
- Reconcile Rhode Island's commitment labels, fees, reporting periods, gross/net performance and legacy GGV/Notable vehicle names; target fund terms are not final terms.
- Resolve employment/migration discrepancies and the 2024 separation's actual governance/economic consequences. A completed biography needs this evidence before drawing causal conclusions.